[Cross-posted at The Left Coaster.]

Via Suburban Guerrilla, the great political writer Matt Taibbi wrote on July 19th for Rolling Stone that our America era of "fantasy elections" is soon to inevitably end, for the howling pain from the abuse of our people just cannot be ignored forever.  One might be justifiably surprised that the will of the American people is being ignored after endless elections in the 2008 political season, but the American process almost earns the title of fantasy, and there is disturbing historical precedence that, in fact, it could go on for a very long time.

I haven't seen or heard Obama's Berlin speech yet. For reasons I won't bore you with, I won't be able to see it until Sunday or Monday. But I did see clips of his interview with Brian Williams on Countdown and Hardball today.

From the diaries I've read here this evening, I gather that watching the video of the speech will probably make me feel pride in being an American -- both because of the quality of our next leader, and because of the way the folks in Berlin were showering the US with love.

But I doubt the emotions generated by the video will exceed the ones generated by hearing Obama speak the sentence I quoted in the title of this diary.

One of the media narratives being floated during Obama's trip overseas has related to the idea that the trip may in fact be having questionable, if not detrimental effects on his campaign for the presidency.

Here's one example from a pseudo-legitimate source:

Newsweek link

I've also heard the idea mentioned by a few of the empty talking heads on cable news.

Now, I reject the idea that this trip has done anything close to as much bad as good.  I believe most such discussion is actually a side-effect of the 24-7 media monster.  But even when I suspended logic and allowed myself to consider the idea that there might be an inkling of merit to this suggestion I couldn't help but think that "I just don't care!"

There is much tongue clucking amongst the mainstream media gurus in the aftermath of Barack Obama’s speech in Berlin. Was it hubris?  Arrogance?  Too much from a United States senator, who is a presidential candidate, but not yet (or perhaps never) President of the United States?  I say no.

This is not about supporting Barack Obama or any lack of support for John McCain. This is about a lack of respect for every soldier that has fought in, is fighting in and has given the ultimate sacrifice in Iraq. John McCain’s assertion that another elected official (Barack Obama) wants to intentionally lose the war in Iraq is absolutely the lowest of the low.  How could any sensible man, elected official, presidential candidate, especially a veteran, say this about another elected official? His assertion is essentially an accusation of premeditated treason.

Earlier today, after Barack Obama's speech in Berlin, the McCain campaign issued a this petty press release:

While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a citizen of the world, John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving and protecting America, Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about.

Yes, how dare a presidential candidate speak to the world about his ability to govern as president. And as a matter of fact, here's John McCain thoughts on this very subject before his trip to Latin America earlier this month:

Going to Latin America in the midst of a presidential campaign, he said, speaks less to his role as a senator than to what he's hoping to achieve if elected this fall. "It's more my ability to govern as president," he said, "my ability to lead as president, to keep up with these major issues."

Did he forget that he said that, or is John McCain that much of a hypocrite?

Well I've just gotten home from the Obama rally, followed by a stop at the movie theater at Sony Center.  I want to diary my experience at the rally and share some eyewitness details for all of you who were not able to attend.  I do apologize that I don't have photos, but by the time I got there it was too dark to use my iPhone camera...

I left the Scottish Lowlands this morning and flew to Berlin to see the man. And let me tell you people that it sure was great! Lots of people were there, lots of different nationalities. There were many Germans and many Americans of course, but people had come from all over Europe to see Obama. I met Spaniards, Italians, Romanians, French, Czechs and British all very enthusiastic about Obama and the future he represents for all of us. I got lots of things to say about what I thought of the speech and about the reactions it inspired in the people around me, but I'll leave that for a more substantial diary that I will try to get together shortly. I'm completely shattered now so I just wanted to share some of the pictures I took with you. Hope you enjoy them!

Obama’08 flies high...

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (GA) and Rep. Chet Edwards (TX) were eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Russ Feingold (WI) and Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA) rotated in to replace them this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

(cross-posted at the new Firedoglake site, CampaignSilo.com):

While Obama was giving a pretty good speech in Berlin, conservative bloggers felt a cold breeze blowing across American history, reminding them of History Channel documentaries with names like Hitler: The Rise of Evil. While others were merely riled-up-as-usual by any country that doesn't speak English—like NextRight's Patrick Ruffini, who's aggrieved that an event in Germany was publicized using handbills printed in German—some plunged further into dread.

Please allow me to introduce myself: I am a man of wealth and taste.

Well, not really.

I just got back from a tour of Berlin with a German family that I'm staying with: the parents of an exchange student that we hosted a few years ago. We ended the day with a quick visit to a park. There, we saw my future president, two hundred thousand Germans, and history.

I am so mad right now I don't know what to do.  For those unfamiliar with me, I live in a small, conservative, republican town in Georgia.  I just had a HUGE argument with my next door neighbor.  After seeing my new shiny Obama sticker on my van, she launched into an attack on me that was unprovoked and very unsettling.  She asked me why he couldn't say the pledge of allegiance to which I replied, that is not true.  I then explained the details of various lies and smears.  She continued to bring up every smear out there from the pledge to the swearing in on the Koran.  I told her she needed to check her facts as these had all been disproved.  She then asked, "So if he is a Muslim, and did swear on a Koran, then would you still support him?"  I explained that I would support him because a person's religion is not an important factor to me.  Which is when she said, "I hope if he gets elected, that he is shot and killed within 24 hours!"

We went to Berlin to volunteer to work with the campaign to find and register American voters.  What follows is a photo blog of our experiences.

The Brandenberg Gate - not where Obama spoke.

I think Obama has had a pretty damn good week. He exceeded expectations on his trip overseas, and all I hear is the media and McC[ompl]ain being more critical of him. It's getting on my nerves. It is quite obvious to me that it's only going to get worse. It's only July and already McC[ompl]ain is spending all of his time stalking Obama's every move so he can make snide, rude, disrespectful, and hateful comments about them.  

Well, it's time for me to do more than be angry and donate.

jump.

We're in trouble:

Obama was at the Tiergarten in Berlin, amid a sea of people.  McCain was at "Schmidt's Sausage Haus und Restaurant" in German Village, an enclave of Columbus, Ohio.

McCain addressed about a half dozen Ohio small business owners in the historic village.
"I'd love to give a speech in Germany," McCain said. "But I'd much prefer to do it as President."

[...]

This event was hastily organized after the candidate's planned visit to a Louisiana [oil rig] was cancelled due to the threat of hurricanes in the Gulf Coast.

Someone emailed me this news from another source, and at first we couldn't tell if it was satire.  Obama, of course, gave a speech this afternoon to huge crowd in Berlin.  He has just come from the Middle East, where he garnered glowing press.   Seeing the McCain campaign try to counter Obama's Berlin event with a stop in German Village where McCain ate some sausage is so pathetic it probably causes most political observers who aren't fervent Republicans to laugh, and like us, think, "nah, this has to be a joke.  They're not that bad...are they?"

It wasn't a joke.  And it's got me worried.

You probably know the concept of peaking too soon.  I'm afraid the McCain campaign may be bottoming out too soon.  I've been following politics since the mid-80's, and I can't think of any campaign that has been as bad as McCain's.  

The campaign thought it was a good idea to send McCain out to an oil rig during a hurricane.  That didn't work, because, you know, there was a hurricane.  By even suggesting that it was a good idea, and then having to pull back from their plans, they looked like nitwits.  (And that doesn't even address the problems caused by the oil spill that's shut down the Mississippi River south of New Orleans.  

Their Plan B?  They sent him to an ethnic diner that will reinforce the contrast between the tired McCain, who met with a few small businessmen, and the charismatic Obama, who got a reception from Berliners like that given to John F. Kennedy.  

Obama went to Berlin and got hundreds of thousands of people and fawning press coverage.  McCain went to Ohio and got a bratwurst and probably a case of heartburn.    

So why am I worried?  Because I can't believe Republicans will allow McCain to continue running his campaign this poorly.  [And the RNC hasn't been any better, as SusanG pointed out yesterday.]  The rest of the party doesn't necessarily need him to run a campaign that can put him in a position to win, but they have to do whatever they can to prevent him from losing solidly and losing in a landslide.  A solid loss hurts them for a while.  It could take them a decade or longer to recover from a landslide loss.

McCain isn't a particularly good candidate.  He's undisciplined, many people think he's too old to be president, he's too closely associated with George W. Bush, and his party is now loathed by much of America.  He's generally seen as likable, but more and more his weaknesses as a candidate are becoming visible.

But as bad a candidate as McCain may be, his campaign is making him worse.  They wasted the time between him locking up their nomination and Obama securing ours.  Obama raised as much money in one day last month as McCain raised in all of June.  McCain spent far more than Obama in June, but he didn't gain any ground.

The McCain campaign recently went through shake-up that was supposed to tighten their operations.  While they have gotten slightly more aggressive in attacking Obama, their messaging and choice of locations and visuals have been laughably bad and don't appear to be getting any better.

I love seeing McCain's campaign get outclassed by Obama's in almost every facet.  I have thought all along that whoever won our nomination would win the presidency, and that there's a good chance that by historical standards it won't even be close.  But I don't like to see the McCain campaign hit what by similar historical standards may be rock bottom, and do it so far out from the election that McCain might have time to bring in people who could improve his operation and make the election closer than we would all like.  

I feel incredibly out-of-step with everyone in the Dkos community right now. Diary after diary about the speech in Berlin, and the comments are piling up in Al Roger's lovely picture-diary which shot to the top of the Rec List.

Meanwhile...

Did this speech earn Barack even a SINGLE vote? Did anyone who wasn't already voting for him decide to vote for him? Did the speech help shore up his areas of weakness--namely national security and the ability to be commander in chief? Did it continue the good work of his trips to Israel, Iraq and Afghanistan?

OR, did it provide Mccain with a chance to talk some more about which one is more American. He already did so in his interview with Brian Williams for tonight--expressing that he would rather give that sort of speech as President than as a candidate. Did it give Fox News and their ilk some sound bytes that they will just love--Barack Obama, son of a Kenyan, who grew up in Indonesia, possible secret Muslim...declaring himself " a citizen of the world"...in front of a crowd of adoring Germans?

Crossposted at Strategy08

This may make McCain blow a gasket:

Colorado

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

These Q-poll numbers are creating a bit of a panic today, which is a bit overwrought and unwarranted, even if the odd number here and there doesn't look good for us. In the case of Colorado, it's always nice when the numbers show our guy in the lead, but most polling has shown this race within the MoE, and this poll is no different. This is what's known as a "battleground", and as such, is inherently, by definition, tight.

I mean, look at the Pollster.com composite score on this race: Obama 46.2, McCain 45.5. That is tight, and should remain so for a while.

Michigan

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4% (6/17-24 results)

Float within the MoE. These numbers are better than those of local firm EPIC-MRA released yesterday, which gave Obama a narrow 43-41 lead. This poll actually widens the composite a bit, up to 47 Obama, 40 McCain.

Lots of rumors floating around that Romney has the leg up in the GOP veep sweepstakes because of his ability to "deliver" Michigan.

Minnesota

Rasmussen. 7/22. MoE 4.5% (7/10 results)

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 2.8% (6/17-24 results)

Not much change in Rasmussen's numbers, but a huge McCain gain in that Q-poll that has everyone freaking out. Rather than cherry pick the favorable polls and try to explain away the bad ones, use this as a reminder that every state is competitive until the fat lady has sung. You get complacent at your own peril.

But the composite poll of polls still gives Obama a comfortable lead -- Obama 50.2, McCain 37.7. No need to panic, but also no need to slack off.

New Hampshire

Rasmussen. 7/23. MoE 4.5% (6/18 results)

This poll seems to ratify yesterday's ARG poll showing things getting tighter in the Granite State. Both ARG and Ras had given Obama a double-digit lead in their previous polls, and both show it much tighter today.

The composite is at Obama 48, McCain 41.9, but I think it's fair to conclude that this state is likely a bit tighter than that.

Wisconsin

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

More float within the MoE. Wisconsin remains surprisingly strong for Obama given how tough it's been to hold the last two presidential years. The composite remains safely in double digits -- Obama 50.6, McCain 38.3.